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Within the considerable disarray surrounding the American military actions on Venezuela, the seizure of leader Nicolás Maduro, and the declaration by Donald Trump that the US will “manage” the country and “take back the oil”, there is no doubt – this establishes a profoundly disturbing precedent.

A Dark Legacy and an Unprecedented Move

The United States has a grim history of meddling, military incursions, and control in Latin America, but this past Saturday morning witnessed its first major military attack on the soil of a South American nation. “US supremacy in this hemisphere shall not be challenged from now on,” Trump proclaimed.

The choice to militarily strike another independent nation and seize its president – mere days after he openly looked for a diplomatic solution – carries even broader implications. It should alarm us all.

Profound Uncertainty for Venezuela

Venezuelans have endured a repressive, kleptocratic and incompetent regime under Mr Maduro, largely considered to have rigged the previous presidential vote. They now face a future of deep insecurity. Mr Trump has suggested that Maduro's second-in-command, Delcy Rodríguez would comply with American demands, and dismissed prominent critic and Nobel prize-winner María Corina Machado as a plausible replacement.

However, Ms Rodríguez, now the interim president, has so far sounded notes of defiance – and other elements of the headless administration are even more hardline.

The Superpower as Rogue State

A man who was elected pledging to stop foreign wars now says he is “unconcerned about deploying troops”. Redesignating the Department of Defense as the Department of War was more than posturing. He fails to perceive the world’s superpower as a international peacekeeper; he is transforming it into a lawless actor.

He is convinced that the United States' strength allows it to do as it wishes with little consequence: observe the attacks in Nigeria and against Iranian nuclear sites. He promises that the oil resources of Venezuela means this most recent venture “won’t cost us a penny”.

A Move Devoid of International Legitimacy

George W. Bush initiated war in Iraq on a lie. But this action without legal basis came absent any United Nations mandate or congressional approval; the opposition party was kept in the dark and say they were deliberately deceived in briefings. Mr Trump aims not merely to stretch international norms, but to obliterate them.

Set aside the implication this carries to global powers like Russia and China, and consider the destination for America itself. While the raid reportedly killed 40 Venezuelans, including civilians, not a single US soldier was lost. Mr Trump’s increasing belief in his impunity will almost certainly fuel more reckless actions.

The Stated Reason Versus the Real Aims

No one buys the justification that this is concerning narcotics. Venezuela is only a minor conduit for cocaine; Mr Trump recently granted clemency to the former Honduran president Juan Orlando Hernández for drugs and weapons crimes. Mr Trump himself made it clear that he is motivated by the promise of energy wealth as well as machismo, the worldview of key officials, and the appetite for triumphalism as his standing with the American public falters.

A Muted Global Reaction and Institutional Irrelevance

The worldwide reception, especially in Europe, has – with a few principled deviations – been shockingly muted. That’s not a result of Mr Maduro’s sins, but trepidation regarding Mr Trump’s wrath. The firm response from UN Secretary General António Guterres was welcome, but this episode underscores the waning power of international bodies.

Mr Trump’s voters who oppose foreign entanglements could still pressure him to redirect his gaze inward – but escalating insurance prices, economic unhappiness and other domestic scandals fuel his desire for external drama.

It has been less than 12 months into his four-year term. Other governments may regret it if they remain quiet at this juncture, given what – and who – could be next.